As we have concluded the 2017 season, we’ve learned how the leagues will be formed in 2018. We’ll look at the storylines in each division and see what 2018 has in store for the D League. Additionally, as we look forward to the 2018 season, we’ll examine previous results to see if the past can give us any clues about the future.
In the tables below you’ll see the 2018 league assignments, along with the relegation history of each manager for the past four seasons so you can see his recent track record. I’ve assigned weightings to each division in order to devise a simple metric by which to quickly gauge a manager’s past success (or lack thereof):
We can take a weighted average of a manager’s league assignments for each of the past four seasons to compare him against his peers. The scale is between 1.00 and 4.00; the lower the number the better.
Using this metric, I’ve also taken an average of each division to indicate the quality of the manager pool relative to other divisions. Interestingly, Presidents has the lowest average (best performing) manager pool at 2.06, followed in order by Royal Purple (2.27), White (2.80), and Gold (3.03). (I will caveat that Gold is penalized by a lack of history for half the division.)
I’ve used this metric to rank the managers and determine in which division each manager will find himself in 2019. Where there was a tie, I made judgment calls (ie Jameson will use his Commissioner powers to edge out T-Mike, returning to Presidents while T-Mike heads to Royal Purple.) Obviously the past may not predict the future, and the math and methodology are quite simple, so take the “analysis” with a grain of salt. There will be much more to analyze come draft time in August. My aim merely is to some interesting data to consider as we head into the offseason and, as always, to spark up a discussion. Leave your thoughts in the comments and take to the GroupMe.
President's: The Phuket Rippers win this year's President's League, being both our first team to win it twice, as well as the first ever back to back 1st place winner. The Executive Committee places second, as well as securing the Highest Points Regular Season prize. Our number 3 is the Sea Cows.
Royal Purple: Absoutely dominating the first year they don't draft Jay Cutler, D. Hank's Rogue Squadron crushes all competition to secure 1st as well as the HPRS prize. Anti - Jersey activist Uncle Abe loses in the finals to get 2nd, and Barking Spiders places third.
White: Arnie's Pizza Shop secures its 2nd 1st place finish as well as the HPRS prize, securing a shot back at the championship next year. Jeff loses out at the end with his second place finish, and Upper Decker finishes out White.
Gold: My new favorite and best league. Hangry Hippos finishes 1st to try his hand in President's next year, followed by Swamp Donkeys and newcomer S. Von G. Swamp Donkeys also gets this league's HPRS prize.
By J. Edwards
It is easy to assume that President's League would have strong performing managers and Gold League would have the weakest managers. However, the relegation structure ensures movement between leagues and theoretical parity. So, has that been true in 2017? Let's look at the stats. Hooray, data!
How do the leagues compare to each other? With the same pool of players available, we can compare the Leagues at an aggregate level to see the quality of the average manager performance this year. President's and White boasted relatively smart managers, as evidenced by the total points scored. Crispin's down year drug down President's allowing White to eek out President's for the highest scoring league. Purple came in third, outperforming Gold, due to Hanks' strong team and not having Skelt's weak-ass squad.
For a look at the individual manager performance, the tables below offer a visual snapshot of the parity within each league.
What do you take away from the data? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
By J. Edwards
#1 Executive Committee (+7.8) vs #2 Phuket Rippers (-7.8)
Both teams finished the season 10-3, with Heldt riding a seven game win streak heading into the playoffs. However, the last time these teams faced off was Week 3 when Sully said 'Phuket', ripping Heldt's dong off by ~50 points and turning Heldt into a Thai ladyboi (Heldt - beware of D Ren). This time around, both teams have a different look after losing players to IR. With a patient investment in Ezekiel Elliot, look for Sully to ride the #freezeke movement to the championship title. Another year of hearing "THE CHAMP IS HERE".
#5 Uncle Abe (+3.5) vs #1 Rogue Squadron (-3.5)
Like President's League, Week 3 showcased the championship matchup where Rogue Squadron took down 137.2 to 100.5. Good shooting, Wedge. The main captains of Hanks' Rogue Squadron - Tom Brady, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, Antonio Brown and Nuk Hopkins - have been taking down tie-fighters consistently all year. Hanks has been the death star this year, scoring the most points of any team across all leagues. Even though Hanks is without AB84 for the championship game, Lincoln will still need a "one-in-a-million shot" to take down the death star.
#1 Hawaii Humuhumu (+4.9) vs #2 Arnie's Pizza Shop (-4.9)
The two top teams in White League met twice during the regular season, splitting the series 1-1. With Antonio Bryant out, Logan will be counting on a big game from Leveon Bell. I'm hoping that Russell Wilson is going above and beyond the call of duty, extending No Nut November well into December where he will blow a five TD load in Week 16. Otherwise, I'll need Carlos Hyde and Dez Bryant to quit being mediocre asshats and act like they get paid millions of dollars to play a game. Otherwise, the Humuhumus will be in the Pit of Misery, instead of Hawaii, while Logan enjoys a slice of glory at Arnie's Pizza Shop. Dilly dilly.
#6 Hangry Hippos (-3.2) vs #1 Swamp Donkeys (+3.2)
The Swamp Donkeys and Hangry Hippos met in Week 8, where TJ donkey-punched Kenny 130.8 to 114.2. However, this time around, Kenny's 7-6 Hippos are favored against TJ's Swamp Donkey's, the second highest scoring team on the season across all leagues. Like Edwards, Kenny is relying on a big game from Russ Wilson. Unlike Edwards, Kenny is also relying on players like Mohamed Sanu, Julius Thomas, and Samarje Perine as starters. SAD. Look for the Donkeys to rise from the Swamp-y piss water of Gold League, winning the championship on the backs of Gurley and Kamara, and ascend to President's League for 2018.
Congratulations to our HPRS winners for this year:
President's - Heldt
Royal Purple - David Hanks
White - Logan Koch
Gold - TJ Masker
By A. Bamrick
Well here we are boys. It’s hard to believe it but 13 weeks of NFL football has passed and it all comes down to this. For those of you that are in the playoffs in presidents for the first time, I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome you for the duration of your stay. As one of two members of the esteemed President’s League Founding Fathers, it has been my pleasure to show you how things are done around here. For those of you left out of the playoffs, you suck ass get the FUCK out of my league I’ll make sure you never work in this town again you hear?
Let’s get to it:
The Ones Who Got the Byes:
1# The Executive Committee – Jim Heldt
The highest scoring team in the league finished with a 10-3 record and narrowly passed the Rippers for the #1 seed by 6 points. The Committee has been a monster this year, averaging a cool 110 points per game and only scoring less than 100 3 times. Heldt is currently on a 7 game winning streak, and a 3 year streak of never saying a word in the groupme, so with his players taking a week off can we expect some sort of let down once they get back out on the field? Probably not because this isn’t real football dumbshits.
#2 Phuket Rippers – Mark Sullivan
The Champ Is Here indeed. The Rippers have put together one of the most masterful seasons I’ve seen in recent memory, overcoming massive injuries by constantly making the right moves on the waiver wire to stay ahead of the drooling morons that make up half of this league, and landing a late blockbuster trade that gave him Zeke to guarantee him the championship if he makes it. Week 3 signaled the end of the rippers starting RBs, and yet it also signaled the start of a six game winning streak that essentially guaranteed him a playoff spot by midseason. Brings a tear to my eye to see the only other OG president’s league member keep his seat at the table.
The Ones Who Have to Play
#3 Never Say Wombat – Josh Knust vs #6 Fighting Emus – Corey Bogenreif
At one point the Wombats were 3-5 and it appeared their run of playoff appearances would end, but then Alvin Kamara happened and the Wombats have road him to a 5 game winning streak and vaulted him up to the 3 seed. What seemed to be a middling squad has exploded into having a mind melting FIVE players in the top 5 of their position, with Jared Goff in the top 10. This is truly a frightening team to come up against at this point in the year. Meanwhile the Emus have had a bit of a resurgence after not scoring 100 five weeks in a row, they’ve gone over the hump the past 3 weeks to ride a bit of a streak of their own into this matchup.
Prediction: Nobody told Knust that No Nut November was a joke, and never was that more apparent than him unleashing a 163 point ass blasting on the Mirthmobile on Sunday. Now that the balls are empty I’d put money on the Emus pulling the upset, although the chodes at ESPN predict a fairly easy 12 point wombat win.
EMUS: 115 – 102
#4 The Mirthmobile –
Austin Bamrick vs #5 The Sea Cows – Will Postler
Easily the matchup of the week over literally every league, this one is a battle of two 8-5 teams that took L’s heading into the playoffs to bump them down a seed. When I drafted I looked at my team thinking it was an 8-5 team, and that’s what I got. I’m one of the only teams to not have had to deal with injuries, bringing a fully healthy if decidedly mediocre squad into the playoffs for the 4th straight year despite having to play the rippers and the wombats twice 3 seasons in a row. This is bullshit by the way.
Side note: Devonta Freeman you fucking suck bro.
Meanwhile the Cows have made some serious moves to get to where they are, getting 8 weeks out of Zeke before offloading him for LeVeon to a desperate and incredibly shitty Alpacas squad, picking up a suddenly MVP caliber Case Keenum, spending his leftover dough to grab Alfred Morris, and making it here despite losing David Johnson first week of the season. It all sets us up for a week that ESPN is projecting to be decided by .1 points.
Prediction – Devonta Freeman finally lives up to his 1st round pick, scoring a staggering 9 points while I go a 3rd week in a row scoring less than 100 after hitting the mark nine out of the previous ten weeks. Chris Hogan goes off for an Adam Theilen like 25 and the Cows move on to play The Executive Committee.
Sea Cows: 120 – 87
JUST KIDDING, I have Josh Gordon.
The Mirthmobile: 268 - 120
Those Who Must Play For My Amusement
#8 ROBO DRAGONS – Drew Pratt vs #7 Backalley Bootleggers – Denton Patrick
To start off the loser’s bracket full of total fucking losers we have two teams I definitely thought would be in the playoffs after the draft. At 5-8 the Dragons are probably cursing Demarco Murray’s name, and at 7-5 the bootleggers are brewing up a truly disgusting present for Bogey’s precious road.
PREDICTION: At the time of this writing Denton has like 4 people in projected to score 0 points which I’m pretty sure is collusion or something so someone should probably look into that. I am reminded of a South Park episode where both baseball teams tried to lose, and despite all their efforts South Park won in hilarious fashion.
Backalley Bootleggers: 90 – 84
#10 Cloudwalkers – Alex Benda vs #9 Jean Racks – Ryan Langtimm
This thanksgiving the thing I was most thankful for was Alex Benda taking Jay Ajayi right before I could so I ended up with Jordan Howard. A perfect example of a roster on paper that should destroy, instead out of the players he drafted only 1 is within the top ten at their position at season’s end. Meanwhile the Jean Racks seemed destined for playoff glory with a God by the name of Danny Woodhead on the squad, but his joy turned to ash as danny was struck down in the first series of his first game as a raven. ESPN has this as the second closest matchup of the week with a 98-93 win for the Cloudwalkers.
PREDICTION: Since nothing matters anymore, Marshawn Lynch and Ajayi will get their shit together and both go off for 20 points as Benda cruises to victory over the Jean Racks, who had the audacity to not pick Danny back up once he was healthy. Shun the non-believers.
#12 Dual Wielding Alpacas – Joe Crispin vs #11 TitoLeewoods Killers – Brian Nelson
I think most of us saw this coming 4 months ago when the draft wrapped up, although a brief flash of hope in the form of Kareem Hunt almost saved the Killers season early on. I truly don’t know if Crispin was just sick of presidents or what, but a draft that included Andrew Luck, Jordan Reed, Eddie Lacy, and using his 8th and 9th round picks on Justin Tucker and the Seattle defense just signaled give me 12th place from the start. This matchup of the two lowest scoring teams in the league should be avoided at all costs.
Prediction: Killers take it with Kareem Hunt finally returning to early season production, and Crispin heads to Gold.
TitoLeewoods Killers: 105 - 70
By J. Edwards
Sometimes you just want to see how you stack up, like TA peering through a dark window (nice dick, Chenchar!) or Knust sneaking a side glance at his neighbor in the old hall showers.
Here is how everyone stacks up, across all leagues, by Total Points Scored in the 2017 regular season:
At the request of Michael Stewart, I've made an update to the "Assessing the Guessing" post by adding the final "total points for" at the end of the regular season.
With this side-by-side look, you can see who had good teams but missed the playoffs and who got lucky.
By J. Edwards
After the draft, I released a set of initial rankings for each league. A lot can happen between the draft and the start of the season, let alone the end of the season. I (predictably) took some heat for my assessments; we can now see if I am better at predictions than Matthew Berry (God I hope so) or if I deserve more flak.
Below you'll see the comparisons between the post-draft rankings and the regular season final standings.
The teams that were pleasant surprises relative to my post-draft assessment are highlighted in green. Mom G sneakily looks approvingly through the window at you during lawn pics.
Those that were disappointments are highlighted in red. You are 72 pieces of cheese?!? Look what you've done. You just gave Mom Pierce a heart attack.
If feel like President's, Purple, and White were decent assessments. I completely missed on Gold, but that is what happens when you have a league full of Piss Boys. Share your thoughts in the comments.
2018 Assist Raffle Tracker
T. Shannon - 24
J. Edwards - 1