The Way-Too-Early 2018 Lookahead

By Jeff 
​As we have concluded the 2017 season, we’ve learned how the leagues will be formed in 2018. We’ll look at the storylines in each division and see what 2018 has in store for the D League. Additionally, as we look forward to the 2018 season, we’ll examine previous results to see if the past can give us any clues about the future.
In the tables below you’ll see the 2018 league assignments, along with the relegation history of each manager for the past four seasons so you can see his recent track record. I’ve assigned weightings to each division in order to devise a simple metric by which to quickly gauge a manager’s past success (or lack thereof):

We can take a weighted average of a manager’s league assignments for each of the past four seasons to compare him against his peers. The scale is between 1.00 and 4.00; the lower the number the better.
Using this metric, I’ve also taken an average of each division to indicate the quality of the manager pool relative to other divisions. Interestingly, Presidents has the lowest average (best performing) manager pool at 2.06, followed in order by Royal Purple (2.27), White (2.80), and Gold (3.03). (I will caveat that Gold is penalized by a lack of history for half the division.)
I’ve used this metric to rank the managers and determine in which division each manager will find himself in 2019. Where there was a tie, I made judgment calls (ie Jameson will use his Commissioner powers to edge out T-Mike, returning to Presidents while T-Mike heads to Royal Purple.) Obviously the past may not predict the future, and the math and methodology are quite simple, so take the “analysis” with a grain of salt. There will be much more to analyze come draft time in August. My aim merely is to some interesting data to consider as we head into the offseason and, as always, to spark up a discussion. Leave your thoughts in the comments and take to the GroupMe.