There can still be a ton of movement in the standings even in this, the final week of the regular season. Because of this, I will only detail the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each of the seven teams that are still in playoff contention. I will look at what would have to go right or wrong for a team to make or miss the playoffs, and for some teams, secure or squander the chance at a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Seven teams are still in contention, with Heldt, Sully, Austin, Postler, Knust, Denton, and Bogey still playing for the money and the D-League title. Crispin, B-Nels, Benda, Langtimm, and Pratt are eliminated and playing only for relegation. Below is a table showing the point differentials between all players that are still in playoff contention. Find your name on the left, and then move to the right to see how many points you are behind or ahead
of a given opponent. Most of the scenarios will reference point scoring, and this chart will help cut down gratuitous explanations in the scenario write-ups. If the write-up mentions the points scoring between Heldt and Sully, for example, you can refer to the chart to see that Sully would have to
outscore Heldt by 48.0-points in Week 13 in order to overtake him.
The Executive Committee (Heldt, 9-3):
Heldt is locked for the playoffs and will enjoy a first-round bye outside of the following corner-case.
With a nice point total buffer, he should feel relatively safe to maintain his hold on a first-round playoff bye. Also, he will likely come out of Week 13 with $100 in his pocket from being the top points-scorer in the regular season. Great season for anyone, and congratulations to Heldt.
Phuket Rippers (Sully, 9-3):
A poor Week 12 showing may have nuked Sully’s chances at the scoring title, but a Rippers win or a Bamrick loss will secure a first-round playoff bye for the reigning-champ. The Rippers could fall to the #3-seed with a loss and a Bamrick win, with Bamrick maintaining his current points lead.
The Mirthmobile (Bamrick, 8-4):
Bamrick could work his way into a first-round bye if the Heldt and Sully worst-cases from above end up coming to fruition, but he will most likely end up right in the middle of the pack at either the #3-seed or the #4-seed with either a win or a loss.
Bamrick is not actually mathematically qualified for the playoffs, but the laundry list of events leading to him missing the playoffs would have to include Bogey out-scoring him by 147.3 points in the final week, as the most unlikely example. If I had to assign a number to it, I would say that he is a one-in-a-trillion chance to miss the playoffs.
The Sea Cows (Postler, 8-4):
A win qualifies Postler for the playoffs, but he is in a little bit different situation than Bamrick because of his lower point total. He does not have a realistic shot of working his way up to a first-round playoff bye, and the three players behind him at 7-5 are close enough in points scoring that a bad week for Postler and a good week for all of them could spell disaster. Postler would miss the playoffs in the following case:
This scenario is unlikely, but it would mean that Postler would miss the playoffs at 8-5.
Never Say Wombat (Knust, 7-5), Backalley Bootleggers (Denton, 7-5), and Fighting Emus (Bogey, 7-5):
I am grouping these three teams together since their fates are so tightly intertwined. The possible results of these three games fall into eight unique permutations, shown in the table below.
Knust has a 29.3-point lead on Denton and a 46.8-point lead on Bogey, which is a significant advantage as most of these eight scenarios come down to the tie-breaker. Denton’s 17.5-point lead on Bogey will play a large factor as well. As with Postler, any of these three teams have the chance to miss the playoffs at 8-5, but that would require all three to win in Week 13.
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