By Josh Knust, Never Say Wombat
Week 4 was a strange week in the President’s League. There was a minor upset with Austin Bamrick’s Mirthmobile toppling the defending champion Mike Stewart and Upper Decker, and a little bigger upset where Mark Sullivan’s Rippers cruised to a strong victory over Nate Lincoln’s team (because of this game, there are no longer any undefeated teams in the league). None of this is that crazy, and the other games worked out as projected, but the major difference between this week and the past few is the low volume of scoring.
Weeks 1-3 saw significantly higher scores averaging 109.1, 101.3, and 118.5 points per team in those weeks. The league average this week was a dismal 89.2 points per team. My first thought was that people had to have left an inordinate amount of points on the bench, but the coaching efficiencies (Points Scored divided by Points Scored Under An Ideal Lineup) were not that much different than the previous weeks. This is shown in the table below.
Whether this means something important or not is unclear, and the low scoring volume may be attributed to the start of bye weeks or to the large amount of injuries in the league so far in this young season. Scoring volume will be a number I will monitor in the coming weeks, if only for the sake of my curiosity.
I am continuing to play around with the formula for the Power Rankings to better reflect the true state of the league. Since the first iteration, I have reduced the importance of actual record and increased the importance of the amount of points scored and the team’s “ceiling”, or the amount of points someone could have scored if they had perfectly set their lineup. The breakdown is currently 10% record, 15% record against the field, 35% points scored, 25% ceiling, and 15% coaching efficiency. Below are the rankings after Week 4.
Bianchi and Lincoln remain solidly atop the rankings due mainly to their terrific scoring. There is a dense cluster in the five through nine slots with Austin, T-Mike, Stewart, Knust, and Jameson all falling within a range of 2.3 Power Score points. Koch and Masker continue to struggle and fall in a lower tier of the rankings. The starkest difference between the basic ESPN Standing and the Power Rankings involves Denton’s Backalley Bootleggers.
At 3-1 and sitting in fifth on the ESPN Standings, the Bootleggers rank only tenth in the power rankings. In this short season, the Bootleggers have been a bit of an enigma, and have a standard deviation of 24.1 points in the population of weekly scores, second only to Austin Bamrick’s Mirthmobile at 25.4. Other than a Week 1 outlier where the Bootleggers scored 124.4 with huge performance from Rob Gronkowski, Keenan Allen, and Carlos Hyde, the team hasn’t broken 100 points in any of the other three weeks.
We are still operating on a small sample size with only four weeks of play from which to draw conclusions, but a separation in tier is starting to become apparent.
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